So I've been entering this pretty much nonstop since I first came across it. Well, lucky me, I got selected as a daily winner a few days ago! What does this mean? On 11/1, I get to take a trip to the NovaCare Complex and participate in a Try Out against 62 other daily winners... where the last person standing qualifies for the grand prize: a 40 yard field goal attempt during half time of the Eagles/Titans game on 11/23 potentially worth $20,000. [Want to enter for yourself?](http://philadelphiaeagles.hs-sites.com/santander-field-goal-challenge-c) [Official Rules](http://www.lincolnfinancialfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Santander20kFieldGoalChallenge2014c.pdf) I'm curious to know if anyone else here in r/Eagles entered or will be participating on 11/1.

Hey guys getting out of 40k so i have some trades. I'm mainly looking for High elves: The new codex, Island of Blood Sea Guard, Reavers, Swordmasters, Dragon princes, Bolt throwers, Phoenixes, Great Eagles. Lizardmen: New codex, Temple Guard For trade I have some painted and unpainted Tau models. I have: 3 broadsides - missleside set up with the remaining parts on sprue. unprimed 2 devilfish. One painted, one unprimed. 1 hammerhead partially painted 4 Marker drones about 20 Fire Warriors in various stages of primed, unprimed and unpainted. 5 Stealth suits, 3 new 2 old. Painted. 2 Crisis suits unprimed. As well as an eldar wave serpent and unopened Fire dragons set, wrathseer, Razorwing and swooping hawk recasts from aliexpress. I also have a metal farseer. PM me for pictures and trade details thanks guys.

**Introduction:** Conventional fantasy football wisdom is that player value depends primarily upon opportunity/usage and secondarily upon skill/talent. I'm attempting to apply these principles to predicting kicker value. Opportunity/usage are represented by: 1. Field goal attempts per game [Team FGA](http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/field-goal-attempts-per-game) 2. Extra point attempts per game [Team XPA](http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/extra-point-attempts-per-game) both of which reflect the ability of a kicker's offense to move the ball downfield, the inability of the kicker's offense to get the ball into the endzone, and the reliance of the kicker's offense upon the kicking game (e.g. very long/short field goal attempts, two point conversions). In each match-up, however, the kicker's offense is only half the story and the opposing defense plays an equally important role, represented by: 1. Opponent field goal attempts per game [Opponent FGA](http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-field-goal-attempts-per-game) 2. Opponent extra point attempts per game [Opponent XPA](http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-extra-point-attempts-per-game) **Method:** Scoring (for calculation of fantasy points; my league's settings): * XP = 1 pt * FG 0-39 = 3 pts * FG 40-49 = 4 pts * FG 50+ = 5 pts * FG Missed 0-39 = -2 pts * FG Missed 40-49 = -1 pts * FG Missed 50+ = 0 pts * XP Missed = -1 Using individual kicker data from [2012](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2012/kicking.htm) and [2013](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2013/kicking.htm) for every starting kicker, I calculated what each FGA was worth in fantasy points for each kicker in [2012](http://i.imgur.com/IKcBAsE.jpg) and in [2013](http://i.imgur.com/xcRjoNT.jpg). I then combined the 2012 and 2013 data, weighting 2013 twice as much as 2012 (2013 = 66.67%; 2012 = 33.33%). Using individual kicker data from [2014 weeks 1-4](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2014/kicking.htm), I repeated the calculation for [2014 weeks 1-4](http://i.imgur.com/wztfPgy.jpg). Each 2014 game will be weighted 6.25% (1/16), so [2014 weeks 1-4 are weighted at a combined 25% (leaving 75% for the combined 2012/2013 data)](http://i.imgur.com/oxijvPG.jpg). I averaged Team FGA with Opponent FGA (weighting 2013 data at 75% and 2014 weeks 1-4 data at 25%) to predict FGA for each week 5 match-up. I applied each kicker's "accuracy" (the conversion factor from FGA to fantasy points calculated above) to predict the number of points likely to be generated from FGA. Similarly, I averaged Team XPA with Opponent XPA (again using 2013 data at 75% and 2014 weeks 1-4 data at 25%) to predict XPA for each week 5 match-up of the 2014 season. I assumed 100% conversion rate for XPA to simplify calculations in predicting the number of points likely to be generated from XPA. I combined the two in order to arrive at total [predicted fantasy points](http://i.imgur.com/94tN0P4.jpg) for each kicker, scaled the data (high score = 20; low score = 1), organized the list into rank order, and arbitrarily put them into [tiers](http://i.imgur.com/hWUFsFy.jpg) using a 'glance at it' technique: **Results:** |Kicker & Match-Up|FantasyPros Rank|VIRMD Rank|VIRMD Score|Comment| |:--------------------------------------|:-------------:|:-------------:|:-------------:|:--------------| | Nick Novak (SD) vs. NYJ | 10 | 1 | 20.00 | | | Adam Vinatieri (IND) vs. BAL | 7 | 2 | 19.70 |Dome | | Shaun Suisham (PIT) at JAC | 8 | 3 | 18.94 | | | Dan Bailey (DAL) vs. HOU | 1 | 4 | 18.29 | | | Justin Tucker (BAL) at IND | 3 | 5 | 17.33 |Dome | | Blair Walsh (MIN) at GB | 14 | 6 | 16.25 |Thunderstorms | | Greg Zuerlein (STL) at PHI | 20 | 7 | 15.98 | | | Steven Hauschka (SEA) at WAS | 2 | 9 | 15.80 | | | Graham Gano (CAR) vs. CHI | 23 | 10 | 15.44 | | | Dan Carpenter (BUF) at DET | 16 | 11 | 15.34 |Dome | | Stephen Gostkowski (NE) vs. CIN | 4 | 12 | 15.32 | | | Chandler Catanzaro (ARI) at DEN | 17 | 13 | 14.99 |Rookie | | Shayne Graham (NO) vs. TB | 11 | 14 | 14.50 |Dome | | Phil Dawson (SF) vs. KC | 9 | 15 | 13.57 | | | Josh Brown (NYG) vs. ATL | 18 | 16 | 12.94 | | | Cody Parkey (PHI) vs. STL | 6 | 17 | 12.57 |Rookie | | Mason Crosby (GB) vs. MIN | 5 | 18 | 12.41 |Thunderstorms | | Matt Bryant (ATL) at NYG | 13 | 19 | 12.23 | | | Robbie Gould (CHI) at CAR | 15 | 20 | 11.51 | | | Nick Folk (NYJ) at SD | 25 | 22 | 10.50 | | | Mike Nugent (CIN) at NE | 19 | 23 | 10.20 | | | Brandon McManus (DEN) vs. ARI | 12 | 24 | 9.94 |Rookie | | Randy Bullock (HOU) at DAL | 22 | 25 | 9.87 | | | Ryan Succop (TEN) vs. CLE | 27 | 26 | 9.10 | | | Alex Henery (DET) vs. BUF | 21 | 27 | 9.08 |Dome | | Billy Cundiff (CLE) at TEN | 24 | 32 | 6.22 | | | Patrick Murray (TB) at NO | 26 | 27 | 5.94 |Rookie; Dome | | Josh Scobee (JAC) vs. PIT | 30 | 28 | 5.68 | | | Cairo Santos (KC) at SF | 29 | 29 | 5.36 |Rookie | | Kai Forbath (WAS) vs. SEA | 28 | 30 | 1.00 | | * [Week 1 Projections](http://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/2fmvcv/kicker_projections_2014_week_1_please_dont_freak/) - [Week 1 Results](http://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/2fztl0/results_of_kicker_projections_from_week_1/) * [Week 2 Projections](http://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/2g2awx/2014_wk_02_kicker_projections_updated_with_wk_01/) - [Week 2 Results](http://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/2gj133/results_of_kicker_projections_from_week_2/) * [Week 3 Projections](http://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/2gpyvd/2014_wk_03_kicker_projections_now_scaled_from_1/) - [Week 3 Results](http://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/2h7pic/results_of_kicker_projections_from_week_3/) * [Week 4 Projections](http://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/2haah9/2014_wk_04_kicker_projections_welcome_alex_henery/) - [Week 4 Results](http://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/2hvmp2/results_of_kicker_projections_from_week_4/) **Conclusion:** There are some inherent limitations to this model: 1. These rankings rely heavily on historical data, particularly during the early weeks. 2. These rankings do **NOT** account for home/away, weather/dome, or injury/personnel changes. 3. Rookie kickers have been assigned the NFL average 'fantasy points per FGA' for periods during which no historical data is available. If part of a rookie kicker's allure is his accuracy or his ability to kick the long ball, then these rankings will undervalued him; conversely, if a rookie kicker has suspect accuracy, these rankings will overvalue him. My gut feeling is that the projected points are less important than the rank order and that the true value of these projections lies in identifying kickers/match-ups with multiple factors predicting high (or low) fantasy-scoring conditions, which are represented by the extremes. My advice is to use the following in order to select a starting kicker: 1. This (a data-driven model heavily reliant upon team match-ups) 2. [FantasyPros ECR](http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/k.php) (an expert opinion-driven model best presented [this way](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/sports/football/2014-fantasy-football-tier-charts-K.html?_r=0)) 3. [Vegas line](http://espn.go.com/nfl/lines) and [ELO ratings](http://fivethirtyeight.com/?s=NFL+Week+ELO+Ratings) (favor kickers on higher scoring teams and [teams predicted to win](http://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/1s2447/i_think_i_may_have_discovered_a_pattern_to_kickers/)) 4. [Stadium](http://i.imgur.com/LZl0sQH.jpg) (favor home games and domes) 5. [Weather conditions](http://www.nflweather.com/week/2014/Week-4/) (favor domes/low chance of precipitation/low wind velocity) One final consideration when dealing with frequently streamed positions (K, D/ST, sometimes TE) is bye week congestion: if a significant number of other teams share a bye week with your streamed player, you'll potentially be competing with other owners picking up bye week fill-ins, in addition to the fact that you'll also be more likely to have other roster needs to address with your waiver priority during congested bye weeks. Consider avoiding players with bye weeks 4, 9, 10, and possibly 11 if deciding between two otherwise equivalent players. |Week|Number of teams on bye|Teams| |:-----:|:-----------------------:|-------| | 4 | 6 |Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks| | 5 | 2 |Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders| | 6 | 2 |Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints| | 7 | 2 |Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers| | 8 | 2 |New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers| | 9 | 6 |Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans| | 10 | 6 |Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Washington Redskins| | 11 | 4 |Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets| | 12 | 2 |Carolina Panthers, Pittsburgh Steelers| **TL;DR:** * [TIERS](http://i.imgur.com/hWUFsFy.jpg) * If Novak/Walsh/Zuerlein/Gano do well and Hauschka/Gostkowski/Parkey/Crosby do poorly, then I may be onto something... Good luck!

**COACHING CHANGES** **Giants 2-14** Following the team's worst finish in 40 years, Tom Coughlin announces his retirement. He is replaced by Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Lombardi only has one season as an offensive coordinator under his belt, but prior to helping the Lions become the second best offense in the NFL and getting Stafford recognized as MVP, he was the Saints quarterback coach credited with turning Drew Brees into a top five QB. As a renowned QB whisperer, Lombardi will likely seek a new QB to mold rather than sticking with Eli. Lombardi's grandfather Vince was the offensive coordinator of the Giants before becoming the legendary head coach of the Packers. **Raiders 4-12** The Raiders cut Dennis Allen in week four, but interim coach Tony Sparano was not a significant improvement. The Raiders have now chosen Texas A&M Head Coach Kevin Sumlin. Prior to discovering Johnny Football Manziel at TAMU, Sumlin was the head coach for Houston. Sumlin becomes the Raiders' 11th head coach in 13 years. **Rams 3-13** After another miserable season, Jeff Fisher is out and Bob Sutton is in. In just two years, Sutton turned the Chiefs into the second-best defense in the league. He previously served as an assistant to the Jets and as Head Coach for Army. **ROSTER MOVES** **Cam Newton** Despite yet another losing season, the Panthers aren't throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Newton signs a 7-year extension worth 121 million. **Ndamukong Suh** The Lions have signed the most violent defender in the league to a 7 year, 78 million extension. **Dez Bryant** The Cowboys put the franchise tag on their star wide receiver. **Starters Cut** Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Vikings' Matt Cassel, and Raiders' Matt Schaub are all cut. **FREE AGENT SIGNINGS** **CB Prince Amukamara** Prince has fled the sinking Giants, heading south to the Dolphins for 5 years, 52.5 million. **WR Mike Wallace** Meanwhile, the Dolphins wide receive Mike Wallace heads north to Cleveland where he'll be making far less than he did in Miami: 19.2 million over 4 years. **QB Carson Palmer** Though he held out against Kirk Cousins, Palmer still lost his job at the end of the season. He'll be heading to San Diego for 1 year, 2.9 million. **QB Matt Cassel** Cut from the Vikings, Cassel is heading to Indianapolis where he will take over for Luck's previous tutor, Matt Hasselbeck, who retired this year. 1 year, 2.1 million. **QB Ryan Mallett** Tom Brady's former backup heads to New York where he'll be looked to as a possible replacement for Eli Manning. 3 years, 9.96 million. **DRAFTEES** 1-1: Giants WR Oneal Peppers, Miami, 78 OVR. 1-2 Dolphins CB Tevita Rosemund, Texas A&M, 81 1-3 Titans FS Quentin Porter, Florida State, 80 1-4 Rams: C Garrett Vaughan, Georgia, 79 1-5: Raiders trade the pick to Bengals: LT Jose Mincy, Georgia, 77 1-6: Texans QB Marc Alexander, Wisconsin, 81. First QB of the draft. 1-10: Steelers QB Malcolm Chapman, Pitt, 84. Second QB of the draft. **QB COMPETITIONS** Giants: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, or Ryan Mallett. Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger, Brian Hoyer, or Pitt rookie Malcolm Chapman. Texans: Case Keenum, Drew Stanton, Wisconsin rookie Marc Alexander. Titans: Zach Mettenberger or Austin Davis. Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater or TJ Yates. **STARTING QBs** Bears: Jay Cutler, 88 Bengals: Andy Dalton, 87 Bills: EJ Manuel, 78 Broncos: Peyton Manning, 92 Browns: Johnny Football Manziel, 95 Buccaneers: Mike Glennon, 85 Cardinals: **Kirk Cousins**, 83 Chargers: Philip Rivers, 87 Chiefs: Alex Smith, 88 Colts: Andrew Luck, 95 Cowboys: Tony Romo, 83 Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, 82 Eagles: Nick Foles, 93 Falcons: Matt Ryan, 92 Giants: **Ryan Nassib**, 74 Jaguars: Blake Bortles, 82 Jets: Geno Smith, 79 Lions: Matt Stafford, 97 Packers: Aaron Rodgers, 96 Panthers: Cam Newton, 92 Patriots: Tom Brady, 92 Raiders: **Derek Carr**, 84 Rams: Sam Bradford, 83 Ravens: Joe Flacco, 88 Redskins: RG3, 82 Saints: Drew Brees, 91 Seahawks: Russell Wilson, 94 Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger, 83 Texans: **Case Keenum**, 76 Titans: **Austin Davis**, 76 Vikings: **Teddy Bridgewater**, 78